| The Race To The Four Seed Authored by Brian Reynolds - March 12, 2009 - 6:52 pm
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That’s right, I am not including Detroit. The Pistons are currently four games behind Atlanta and 2.5 behind Miami. Despite their recent surge that included two wins over Orlando, a win against Denver, and a double-digit victory in Boston, I don’t see them jumping two playoff teams and overcoming four games by the end of the year. And I am not including Philadelphia for pretty much the same reason.
So let’s break this down. Atlanta is coming off three huge wins in the past six days – all at home (another reason why this home court thing is a big deal). Miami is riding the coattail of MVP hopeful Dwyane Wade, who this week has given SportsCenter more highlights than the rest of the NBA combined.
First, the Hawks. Atlanta will play 11 of their final 17 games at Phillips Arena, including eight of their next nine. They will see some of the league’s best in the Blazers, Mavericks, Spurs, Celtics, Lakers, and Magic. They will also see (and should have an easy time with) Indiana, Sacramento, and Minnesota. The thing to look at here is that all of their remaining “tough” games (teams with a plus .500 record) will be played at home, except for two – Cleveland and Boston. There is no reason to think the Hawks can’t come away with at least 7 wins in their last 11 home games. They just proved they can beat the best teams at home in the last week with wins over the NBA’s hottest teams – Pistons, Hornets, and Jazz. And I will give them a split with their six remaining contests on the road (Wins against Toronto, Milwaukee, and Memphis). So, from here on out, the Hawks should be able to finish with a 10-7 record that would put them at 47-35 when the season ends.
The Heat have a tougher road. They will play 11 of their final 18 games away from American Airlines Arena, where they are 23-11. They will be tested on the road. They will play in Philly, Detroit, Indiana, Chicago, Dallas, Charlotte, Boston (twice), and Atlanta at the end of the year – all teams with a plus .500 record at home. I will give them five wins in their remaining 11 road contests (and I think I’m being generous). At home, they will see Utah, Memphis, Milwaukee, Orlando, New Orleans, New York, and Detroit. I’ll give them four wins here, but if Dwyane Wade decides to go off again they could get hot and win 5. So, I’m predicting a 9-9 finish for Miami, which would give them an overall record of 44-38.
So, the winner is Atlanta. Who cares, you say. Well, for one they showed the world they can play with the big boys by beating Boston in all three home games in last year’s postseason. For two, they’ve proved it again this season. The Hawks have snapped some of the league’s longest streaks this year on their home floor. Earlier this year, they beat the Cavs who were riding an 11-game winning streak. They beat the Hornets on Monday, who came to Phillips with a 7-game winning streak. Then, they beat Utah on Wednesday night, who swaggered into Atlanta with a 12-game winning streak.
If the Hawks do clinch the fourth spot, they should be able to beat Miami (just because of the home-court edge) in the first round. Then, it’s looking like they will face off against Cleveland in the Conference’s semi-finals. If they could steal a game in Cleveland, they could shock a lot of people and knock off the Cavs. Granted, it’s not easy to win in Cleveland, but crazier things have happened.
Want a preview? You got it. On Saturday, March 21st, the Hawks will play in Cleveland. Don’t think of that one as just another regular season game. The Hawks will be there to send a message. |
