| 2009-10 Season Preview: Atlanta Hawks Authored by Andrew Perna - October 16, 2009 - 8:37 pm
| Current Featured Columns | | Merry Christmas, Raptors Fans The Raptors might not be playing good basketball right now, but there are plenty of things for Toronto fans to be thankful for this holiday season.
A Melo Behind The SuperstarsCarmelo Anthony has never been one of the league's most efficient offensive players.
 |
Maynor Using Utah’s Resources
Eric Maynor is an increasingly rare four-year, small college rookie. He sat down with RealGM to discuss how his first few weeks of NBA life has gone and what he has learned from Deron Williams and Jerry Sloan.
|
 |
Why LeBron To The Clippers Makes Sense
LeBron James already plays for a perennial underdog in Cleveland, but moving to the Clippers would allow him to do so in a huge market and with a core that will immediately compete for championships while also having an encouraging long term outlook.
|
 |
‘Home-Heavy Schedule’ Brings Question Marks
The Heat have been plagued by inconsistencies, making it difficult to determine how good they really are this season.
|
|
More from RealGM's Columnists
|
| |
Last Season’s FIC Rank: +2.0, 14th
Key Additions: Joe Smith, Jamal Crawford
Key Subtractions: Ronald Murray, Acie Law
Key Rookies: Jeff Teague
Probable Starters: Mike Bibby, Joe Johnson, Marvin Williams, Josh Smith and Al Horford
Point Guard: There was a point in time near the end of last season when Mike Bibby was expected to leave Atlanta, but he ultimately returned with a three-year, $18 million deal. That’s a great price for an underrated point guard that has averaged 16.4 points and 6.1 assists over a very consistent career.
He’s an average defender, but his offensive skill set is among the best in the league. He cannot create his own shot, but always has a knack for knowing where his teammates like the basketball. Bibby can also step out and hit a three; he made more than two per game last season. That frees up space in the middle of the floor for guys like Joe Johnson and Marvin Williams.
After missing the playoffs for eight straight seasons, the Hawks have made the postseason twice since Bibby arrived roughly 20 months ago. He took tremendous care of the ball in 2008-09, with a turnover percentage of just 10.6 and an assist-to-turnover ratio of 3.1. He’s a very positive influence on offense, but his defense leaves more to be desired. As he ages, inevitably losing a step, it’ll only get worse. His net points per 100 possessions was -4.1 last year despite Atlanta’s average point differential per game of +1.6.
If the Hawks are going to continue progressing, whether it’s 50 wins or the Eastern Conference Finals, Bibby will need to corral guys like Rajon Rondo, Mo Williams and Jameer Nelson.
Acie Law wasn’t even close to what many expected coming out of Texas A&M. After two failed seasons in Atlanta, the Hawks shipped him to the Warriors in the trade netted them Jamal Crawford. In their search for a point guard of the future, they turn from one young passer to another.
They drafted Jeff Teague back in June. Teague is a better athlete and playmaker than Law, but he’s very similar to Bibby in terms of size. Atlanta will have to hope that he develops good defensive instincts in the NBA, because he has the speed to keep up with opposing guards that Bibby sometimes lacks. He’s also a better shooter than Law, which will unquestionably help him earn the minutes that Law never could.
Swingmen: Already deep on the wings, the Hawks got even better with the addition of Jamal Crawford. He’s played close to 600 games without ever making it to the playoffs, which is pretty hard to do in the NBA, but that streak of futility will end this coming spring.
He has shown in the past that he can explode offensively without warning, but his defense is consistently bad. When the Hawks need a shot in the arm, Crawford will provide it though. He’s very energetic and his offensive style is much different than that of Atlanta’s returning wing players.
Joe Johnson might not have a flashy demeanor, but he’s at the core of why the Hawks are on the upswing. His future is cloudy in Atlanta though, which, as in any similar case, could become a distraction or point of contention.
On the court, though, Johnson is absolutely an All-Star. He’s the best player on a playoff team and has handled the additional pressure and double-teams without issue. He’s a very good rebounder for his size and has shown the ability to be a play-maker as well. He’s averaged more than 20 points, four assists and four rebounds in each of his four seasons in Atlanta.
He was on the court nearly 80% of the time last season, this after averaging forty minutes over 82 games in 2007-08, but insists that he doesn’t want to see a reduction in minutes nor is he fatigued. He’s become a great clutch player as well. According to 82games.com, he has a +/- of +50 in crunch time, which the site defines as the fourth quarter (less than five minutes left) or overtime of games when neither team has a lead larger than five points.
Marvin Williams and Maurice Evans will split time at small forward. Williams is coming into his own, but still hasn’t lived up to the expectations that come along with being the second overall pick. It’s been said over and over, but imagine where the Hawks would be had they taken Deron Williams or Chris Paul.
Williams is a tremendous athlete, but that hasn’t always translated into great success on the court. He has, though, improved his three-point shot over his four seasons.
Evans is a great guy to have on your roster simply because of his strength. There is a lot packed onto his 6’5” frame, which allows him to matchup with taller opponents at times. He’s not a tremendous offensive player, but the Hawks don’t need him to be.
Frontcourt: The addition of Joe Smith will not only provide coach Mike Woodson with a proven veteran off the bench, but he’ll also impart some of his wisdom to young guys like Josh Smith and Al Horford. Smith has a good offensive game, but he’s one of the league’s grittiest players as well. Sure, his career didn’t mirror his draft status (first overall in 1995), but he’s made himself a nice niche in the league.
Josh, the younger Smith, has developed a bad reputation because of his differences with Woodson, but he’s a nicer guy than many lead fans to believe. He doesn’t handle the ball well or have good range on his shot, but he can do nearly everything else on the court. I have the image of him rejecting a shot, racing down the floor and finishing at the rim ingrained into my brain. In my opinion, that’s one of the most impressive sequences that a player can nearly single-handedly perform and Smith is the league’s best at doing just that.
As great as Kevin Durant was as a rookie, I still believe that Horford should have taken home Rookie of the Year honors. He came in and averaged nearly a double-double in 81 games as a “green” and slightly undersized NBA center. If he can extend his range out a little bit, he could become one of the league’s best centers (if he isn’t already at the end of that conversation). At times, his build reminds me of Elton Brand’s and if he can learn to use his strength in a similar manner, I don’t see why he can’t parlay that into similar success.
I’m not overly impressed with what they have behind Horford, but you could do a lot worse than Zaza Pachulia as your backup.
Forecast: The Hawks have their eyes on 50 wins, which certainly isn’t out of the question after posting 47 victories last season. The bottom half of the East’s playoff picture has become more competitive, but the role of fourth seed is Atlanta’s to lose. A host of teams will be gunning for the Hawks, with a target of the top-three (Boston, Cleveland and Orlando) out of the question. With added depth (Crawford and Smith) and an understudy to Bibby that appears to fit in Atlanta (Teague) they’ll hover around their goal. I’m seeing 48 wins and either the fourth or fifth seed come playoff time.
Andrew Perna is Deputy Editor of RealGM.com and co-host of RealGM's Radio Show. Please feel free to contact him with comments or questions via e-mail: Andrew.Perna@RealGM.com. You can also follow Andrew on Twitter: APerna7. |
